October 1, 2010
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Statistical Illiteracy
We are continually bombarded in today”s world on TV and in the press with tons of data and statistics especially regarding the economy. The problem is we are also often misled by the numbers and by our misunderstanding of probability.I recently read in Wired magazine an article that brought a new light to this wave of stats and how we parse them.
We use only 10 percent of our brain! That familiar statement is false. There’s no evidence to support it. Still, something about it just sounds right, so we internalize it and repeat it. Such is the power and the danger of statistics.
Our world is shaped by, as Wired called it, widespread “statistical illiteracy.”
We fear things that probably won’t kill us (terrorist attacks) and ignore things that probably will (texting while driving).
We buy lottery tickets. We fall prey to misleading gut instincts, which lead to biases like loss aversion—an inability to gauge risk against potential gain. The effects play out in the grocery store, the office, and the voting booth (not to mention the bedroom: People who are more risk-averse are less successful in love).
And it’s getting worse: We are now 53 percent more likely than our parents to trust polls of dubious merit. (That figure is totally made up. See what I mean?)
Where do all these numbers that we remember so easily and cite so readily come from? How are they calculated, and by whom? My mother often says, “they” say this or “they” claim that… who the heck is “they”/
How do we misuse all these stats to make them say what we want them to? I am always amazed that in politics two parties can look at the same statistics so differently.
One more stat; I am 100% certain that this is good advice, please don’t text and drive.
